Background: Denpasar city is one of cities with the highest dengue incidence in Indonesia. Environmental factors such as climate variability is one of the factors that influence the incidence of dengue. Methods: This study aimed to obtain a predictive dengue incidence models using secondary data of weekly climate and surveillance of dengue in Denpasar, Bali, 2010-2014. Climate data was obtainedfrom Indonesia Agency for Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical (BMKG), while dengue cases were obtained from Early Warning Alerts Respons System (EWARS), the Indonesian Ministry of Health. Data analysiswas using linear regression with various combinations of climate variables and lagtime. Results: The study showed significant relationship between the number of dengue cases, rainfall, temperature, humidity and the incidence of dengue (p<0.05). Incidence of dengue in Denpasar city was affected by climate variability of 4-week period (lagtime 4) earlier and the number of dengue cases wasfrom two weeks earlier. Thus climate factors affected the incidence of dengue indirectly. Conclusion: The prediction model can be used as one of the considerations on the early warning of dengue disease in Denpasar city, while providing counseling or education efforts to the community about prevention of dengue and vector elimination